Protecting people from the humanitarian impacts of extreme climate and weather events: Working together to strengthen anticipatory action
Gantsetseg Gantulga, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
Climate- and weather-related disasters are increasing in frequency and severity, placing immense pressure on already overstretched government systems and exposing communities to increasingly complex and cascading risks. Anticipatory action – acting before hazards strike using forecasts, early warnings and, wherever possible, pre-arranged financing – has proven more rapid, cost-effective and dignified than traditional response, as demonstrated by the IFRC and National Societies over the past decade. The adoption of the anticipatory action resolution at the 34th International Conference of the Red Cross and Red Crescent in October 2024 was a landmark moment, marking an unprecedented commitment from States and the Movement to scale up anticipatory action globally. Since then, important progress has been made in advancing this approach. The post highlights how institutionalizing anticipatory action, strengthening coordination at all levels and empowering local actors remain central to making the approach standard practice across all regions.
Growing government momentum on anticipatory action shown by IFRC research
New research from the IFRC reveals significant momentum among governments worldwide in adopting anticipatory action as a core element of disaster risk management. What began as a largely humanitarian initiative is increasingly becoming national policy, reshaping how countries anticipate, prepare for and respond to disasters and crises.
Countries such as the Philippines, Bangladesh and Mozambique have taken major steps in this respect by embedding anticipatory action directly into national laws and disaster risk management policies. This shift elevates anticipatory action from a humanitarian best practice to a central government priority.
In countries such as Haiti, Kenya and Ethiopia, authorities are collaborating with the Red Cross and Red Crescent network and others to deliver anticipatory action through national social protection systems, linking early warning to anticipatory action to support at-risk communities.
In Mongolia and the Philippines, governments are going further still, allocating domestic budgets for anticipatory action measures that extend beyond evacuation support. Latin American National Societies and governments met in Chile in September 2025 for a dialogue platform to accelerate this work.
Across all Early Action Protocols (EAPs) developed by National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, government agencies – especially hydrometeorological services and disaster management authorities – play a central role. Yet challenges remain. In many countries, finance ministries cannot always be engaged at the right time, meaning budgets tied to specific early warning triggers or anticipatory action policies are not commonplace. Sustained investment and political commitment will be essential to decisively shift away from reactive responses and towards proactive risk management.
In line with commitments made at the International Conference and our role as global lead for Pillar 4 of the Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative, supporting governments in embedding anticipatory action into national disaster risk management systems is a top priority.
A surge in EAPs across the IFRC network
Since the adoption of recent policy resolutions, the IFRC network has seen a notable increase in pre-agreed plans linked to pre-arranged financing. The number of approved EAPs has risen by 68% compared with the previous year, with 53% coming from the Africa region. A total of CHF 11.1 million has been allocated to the anticipatory pillar of the Disaster Response Emergency Fund (DREF).
Floods remain the most frequently targeted hazard within the Red Cross and Red Crescent network, reflecting their rising frequency and severity as climate change accelerates, but countries are also broadening their anticipatory measures to address other risks, such as population movements or cholera.
Crucially, this growth is not just about numbers. Each new protocol means communities are better protected through science-based forecasting and earlier, more targeted life- and livelihood-saving action. Beyond hydrometeorological hazards, anticipatory approaches are now also being applied to disease outbreaks, forest fires and complex emergencies that drive displacement, demonstrating the expanding versatility of anticipatory systems.
Transformative potential: Access to climate finance
The IFRC’s work on behalf of the Red Cross and Red Crescent network to secure accreditation with the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) initiative is expected to be a game-changer. Direct access to climate finance will enable National Societies, often the first responders and embedded within communities, to strengthen systems that link early warning to early action.
Experiences in the Maldives and Timor-Leste already highlight the added value of Red Cross and Red Crescent engagement in GCF-supported projects, allowing anticipatory programmes to be designed proactively rather than delivered solely through external partnerships.
A decade of progress and new challenges ahead
The year 2025 marks ten years since the first forecast-based financing pilots proved that having pre-agreed plans tied to pre-arranged financing dramatically increases the likelihood of early warnings triggering timely action before hazards strike, saving lives and protecting livelihoods. Today, amid a humanitarian landscape shaped by climate change, protracted crises and rising displacement, anticipatory action is more relevant than ever but also faces new operational and political challenges resulting from the recent funding cuts.
These issues will take centre stage at the Global Dialogue Platform on Anticipatory Humanitarian Action from 2 to 4 December 2025 in Berlin. The event offers a pivotal opportunity to celebrate achievements, reflect on lessons learned and drive the continued expansion of anticipatory action worldwide.
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