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Statutory Meetings / Blog / Navigate Uncertainty, Strengthen Humanity: Charting a path forward
October 2024
Anticipatory Action

Navigate Uncertainty, Strengthen Humanity: Charting a path forward

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, the German Red Cross and the International Committee of the Red Cross

The Hellenic Red Cross helping prepare people to cope with the heat in June 2024, in line with its Simplified Early Action Protocol for Extreme Heat. Photo: Hellenic Red Cross, 2024

Extreme weather and climate-related events have surged by nearly 35% since the 1990s, claiming over 410,000 lives in just the past decade. By 2050, as many as 200 million people per year – double the number in 2019 – could require international humanitarian aid owing to climate-related disasters and the socio-economic impacts of climate change.[1]

With disasters becoming increasingly frequent and severe, proactive measures are needed more than ever. Thanks to technological advancements, we can now more accurately predict when, how, and where these disasters will occur, enabling anticipatory action that can save lives and protect livelihoods. Effective early warning systems are also essential, particularly for high-risk, hard-to-reach communities. Individuals and organizations have to be able to act on these warnings as well.

International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement has been at the forefront of these advancements. Early warning and anticipatory actions are an important part of the services provided by the 191 National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, whose staff and volunteers are present before, during and after emergencies in many communities.

The Movement has also developed forecast-based financing. All National Societies have access to the anticipatory pillar of the Disaster Response Emergency Fund, set up by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. It links forecasts to pre-agreed action plans and pre-arranged financing.

Benefits of anticipatory action

There is growing evidence that anticipatory action saves lives and livelihoods. It is also a more dignified and cost-effective approach than traditional post-disaster response.

Building on global commitments

At the upcoming 34th International Conference of the Red Cross and Red Crescent, a  resolution will be proposed for adoption emphasizing the need to strengthen anticipatory action in order to minimize the predictable impact of climate and weather-related hazards. This resolution builds on previous commitments, such as Resolution 9 of the 2022 Council of Delegates, which calls for expanding anticipatory actions across more countries, hazards and populations, and aligns with resolutions from the 33rd International Conference, including Resolution 7, that encourage governments to allocate funding for these measures. It also supports UN resolutions, like A/RES/74/218 and A/RES/72/132, and further delivers on the Early Warnings for All ambitions.

Alignment with global frameworks

States have already committed to strengthening their efforts to anticipate, plan and prepare for the growing impacts of climate change in global frameworks such as the Sendai Framework and the Paris Agreement. Applying anticipatory action at scale can help governments to fulfil the commitments they have made  under these frameworks.

What the resolution calls for

The resolution calls on both States and the Movement components to intensify their collaboration to anticipate, prepare for and respond effectively to the growing humanitarian consequences of climate change. Key components of the resolution include:

  • integrating anticipatory action into domestic disaster risk management and climate frameworks
  • strengthening anticipatory action in fragile and conflict-affected settings, particularly in protracted crises
  • improving all elements of early warning systems, including risk knowledge, forecasting, dissemination and preparedness
  • building the capacity of local actors, such as National Societies, to implement anticipatory action
  • establishing, adapting and facilitating effective and efficient funding mechanisms to support anticipatory action at national and local levels
  • enhancing the evidence base, practice and experience through up-to-date research and data to steer anticipatory action, by leveraging existing initiatives and platforms.

A more resilient future

Adopting this resolution will better position governments and the Movement to anticipate and reduce the humanitarian impacts of extreme weather and climate events. By being proactive rather than reactive, we can reduce suffering, protect vulnerable people, and build a more resilient future in an increasingly uncertain climate.

Read more about this topic

[1] IFRC, The Cost of Doing Nothing: The Humanitarian Price of Climate Change and How It Can be Avoided, 2019: https://www.ifrc.org/sites/default/files/2021-07/2019-IFRC-CODN-EN.pdf.

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